Wow, Looks Like Low Yields This Year!

'Had a chance to drive through Yamhill-Carlton, Ribbon Ridge, Dundee Hills, and Eola Hills AVAs today.  After feeling poorly about our vineyard's fruit loads, it looks like we're in pretty good shape compared to what I saw at other well-managed, typically good-yielding vineyards.  It's hard to say what yields will be this year, but given the rows I could see at these vineyards, I wouldn't be surprised to learn later that 2012 is one of the lower yielding vintages in recent memory.  To me, it looks a lot worse than 2010.

July 2012 Heating Degree Days & Rainfall

July is usually our 1st or 2nd hottest month of the year, with Heating Degree Days (HDDs) above 500, but this year we had cooler than normal temperatures.  July's total 492 HDDs is above last year's recent low of 463 HDDs and considerably below July 2009's recent high of 626.  July 2012 Season-to-Date total HDDs is 1001.

July is usually our 1st or 2nd driest month, and this year it looks to be so, with only 0.07" of rain, occurring in the first 3 days of the month.  Season-to-Date rainfall, however, is a healthy 43.6"; which continues to provide more than adequate soil moisture for canopy growth.

Throughout 2012, the Seasonal Forecast has been predicting 2012 to be an analog of 2009, one of the hottest seasons in recent memory.  So far 2012 has been more like 2008, but  beginning Friday the short-term forecast is showing the first major, extended heat spike of the year, with temps reaching into the upper 90's.

Between Fruit Set and Lag

We finished bloom around July 11, in the midst of a 10-day stretch of sunny, dry, mid- to upper-80s weather.  Had the previous cool, cloudy weather continued, who knows how much longer bloom would have lasted and potential yield would have declined.

After the terrible bloom conditions, we were fortunate enough to have a good set from the flowers that did pollinate.  At this point it's too early to tell how big the berries will be this year, but having started out with fewer than normal numbers and only moderately-sized flower clusters, after the poor pollination we certainly won't be bringing in the amount of grapes we did last year. 

The vines themselves are another matter entirely.  Since the heat hit shortly after the 4th, they have been growing faster than we can remove laterals, leaves, and shoot tips.  "Normally" (if there is such a thing anymore) the soil would have dried sufficiently to have slowed shoot growth by now.  But the wet, cool, cloudy weather through June, and the cooler than normal July temps - even though warmer, sunnier, and drier than June - has left plenty of soil moisture to fuel shoot growth.  This has probably saved the jobs of a lot of vineyard managers this year, whose vines in June looked like they might not have canopies strong enough to ripen fruit.  But for those of us, that were on-track, it's been non-stop work and $s managing the canopy.  We've already hedged our vines twice, with at least one more hedging to be done.   Having had less than 0.1" of rain so far this month, I'm hoping the shoots slow down before a fourth hedging becomes necessary , but as you can see in the picture above, the grass is still green.  Here's what rows from each block are looking like:

Getting back to the fruit, though...Variability is the operative word this year.  We have vines with no fruit; vines with 2 clusters on each shoot; normally shaped clusters with uniformly-sized berries; small clusters with wings as large or larger than the primary cluster; loose clusters; odd-shaped clusters; loose, odd-shaped clusters with hens and chicks; you name it.  Hopefully, some of this variability will help us minimize Botrytis at harvest time, and perhaps positively impact the complexity of flavors and aromas in the wines of this vintage.  Here's what the fruit is looking like:

It remains to be seen what effect the relatively long, slow, and uneven pollinating period this year will have on ripening.  Mathematically, mid-bloom occurred sometime around June 28 this year, in our vineyard; pushing the expected beginning of harvest into mid-October. 


The weather is forecasted to be sunny, dry, and cooler than normal for the rest of July, which is typically one of the two hottest months of our summer.  Hopefully we don't make up for it with a scorcher of an August.

We're Well Into Bloom

Here's what it's been looking like throughout bloom this year:

A few, sporadic, warm, clear days over the past two weeks have triggered spurts of flowering.  The cloudy weather has led to inflorescence necrosis in blocks that were the first to bloom.  The cool weather has delayed and slowed flowering in the other blocks, with significant amounts of cap retention.  We don't yet know how this will affect yield, but it's clear that we'll be harvesting in October this year.
Clone 115

Clone 114

 Wadenswil Clone

 Pommard Clone

There is significant variation in the evenness and amount of vegetative growth in vineyards throughout the northern Willamette Valley this year.  Fortunately, our vines have developed relatively evenly and are, vegetatively, ahead of where we would normally be by mid-bloom.  Due to the early development, abnormally large amounts, and rapid growth of lateral/secondary shoots this year we were forced to remove these shoots during bloom.  A positive side effect of this is that we should see better berry set than had we been able to wait until after bloom, when the laterals normally are ready to be removed.  Most primary shoot tips are well above the top catch wires; we will begin clipping the top wires tomorrow, and probably be forced to hedge the shoots in the following week.
115 Clone

114 Clone

Wadenswil Clone

Pommard Clone

We continue to await the forecasted sunny, warm, and dry weather.  It seems like every forecast shows it to be only 'a couple of days away'... 

June Heating Degree Days & Rainfall

June cumulative season-to-date heating degree days were 510; actual heating degree days for the month were 265. 

The 2012 season-to-date numbers are somewhat skewed warmer than the monthly results, due to the significantly warmer April temps.  

June rainfall was 2.3 inches, almost 3/4s of an inch more than normal.  Total season-to-date rainfall since October 43.5 inches.

The net effects of the cooler, wetter weather are: significantly higher than normal lateral/secondary shoots this year; and a later, slower bloom with moderate amounts of infloresence necrosis. 

I Guess It Could Be Wetter, Windier, and Colder...

But, still, this pattern of a couple dry, warmer than normal days followed by a string of showery, cooler than normal days continues to plague us during the critical bloom period.  On the positive side, it looks like we'll have an extended bloom period this year, pushing harvest into mid-October.  This is a positive, from my point of view; because I love the wine we make when we aren't harvesting during a September heat spike, especially given that the forecasters have been calling 2012 an analog to 2009 - one of the hottest, heat-spiked years in recent memory.  On the down side, we could be in for an abnormally low yield.

The weather forecast shows cool, showery weather through Tuesday; then a couple clear, warm days; followed by a week of cool, showery weather.  Depressing, but, then again, the forecasters have been wrong most of the season so far.

All Blocks in Bloom

The Dijon clone blocks are now blooming, too; only a couple of days after the Pommard and Wadenswil.  Looks like we have good follow-through on the strong, even budbreak.  Now, hopefully we will have a good bloom and strong set...